The “Right Wing Revolution” in the Netherlands is Overhyped
by Peter Brukx
February 18, 2020
Right-wing populism has overcome the Netherlands, according to commentators. In the Dutch provincial elections in April 2019, the anti-European Union party Forum for Democracy (FvD) became the largest party in the Senate, earning 13 of 75 seats. The Dutch Senate is not as important as the Tweede Kamer — the equivalent of the House of Representatives. While the Tweede Kamer creates and approves legislation, the Senate simply approves or rejects legislation. Still, the FvD’s leader, Thierry Baudet, lauded the victory as a fundamental shift in Dutch politics towards his climate-change-skeptic, anti-immigration, pro-Russia agenda. Except this is not a fundamental shift, or even a new development, in Dutch politics. This “right wing revolution” is grossly overhyped and misrepresented for two key reasons.
First, the results of the provincial elections actually require Prime Minister Mark Rutte to move his center-right coalition to the left to accommodate the Green Party or the Labour Party (PvdA) if he wishes to pass new legislation. The Green Party’s representation more than doubled, from 4 to 9 seats. The PvdA didn’t fare as well, losing a seat. Still, the FvD’s gains do not mean Rutte will be reaching out to the far-right; he’s already tried and failed at that. Instead, Rutte will be looking to the center-left and making deals with them. His announcement before the election that the Netherlands would reduce CO2 emissions by 49% from 1990 levels by 2030 was an explicit appeal to the Greens.
Second, the FvD is just the latest manifestation of anti-immigration, anti-European Union strain in Dutch politics that has existed for two decades. Its surge came largely at the expense of Geert Wilders’ right-wing Party for Freedom (PVV), which earned 5 seats in 2019, down from their 2015 total of 9. Voters view Baudet, who makes arcane literary references and error-filled speeches in Latin, as a more sophisticated, high-brow version of Wilders, making him more appealing to young, educated voters.
Wilders was the main right-wing figure from 2006 to 2019. He founded the PVV in 2006 with the explicit goal of “limiting the growth of Muslim numbers” in the Netherlands and rose to national prominence, culminating in a second place finish in the 2017 Dutch general elections. Before Baudet and Wilders, there was Pim Fortuyn, who was assassinated for his anti-Islamic rhetoric days before the 2002 general elections. Fortuyn’s assassination propelled his party, the Pim Fortuyn List (LPF), to a second place finish in the 2002 elections, but without its original leader, they declined in power before finally dissolving in 2008. These parties consistently gain around 10–20% of the vote.
Baudet has been able to gain media coverage because of his elite background — atypical for right-wing figures — and his outdated philosophical justifications for his policies. Compared to Wilders, his more polished makes him more of a threat to the Dutch political establishment in the eyes of political commentators. But, such fears are unfounded. The provincial vote showed the FvD only marginally expanded beyond the PVV voter base. This is hardly the “right wing revolution” declared by the media.
Ultimately, Baudet and the FvD are just the Dutch right wing’s shiny new plaything. Voters got bored with Wilders and gravitated towards Baudet, who likely gained an additional boost from a shooting in Utrecht three days prior. The FvD only has 13 seats and will not be part of the coalition government. Pointing to the provincial elections as a fundamental shift in Dutch politics ignores the historical record and the reality of how the coalition-based system works.
Peter Brukx is a sophomore at the George Washington University, where he is studying International Affairs with concentrations in International Politics and European Affairs and is minoring in Germanic Language and Culture. He is interested in Western European affairs, energy policy, and European integration.
